26/10/2016 Abigail Horn (Massachusetts Institute of Technology), on "Locating the Source of Large Scale Outbreaks of Foodborn Disease"

 

Abstract

Identifying the origin of the contaminated food causing an outbreak is a challenging problem due to the complexity of the food supply and the absence of coherent labeling and distribution records. Current investigative methods are time and resource intensive, and the overwhelming majority of investigations are unsuccessful in identifying the location source of an outbreak. New tools and approaches that take advantage of modern data and analytical techniques are needed to more quickly identify outbreak origins and prioritize response efforts.
 
In this seminar, I will present methods developed during my PhD that leverage currently unutilized or underutilized sources of information to efficiently identify the location source of an outbreak. These methods are focused on a novel, network-theoretic approach to source detection that (1) immediately identifies all feasible source locations, (2) ranks the feasible locations by the likelihood that each one is the true source, and (3) develops a decision model for guiding investigators to implement effective interventions. I will show that when compared in simulation experiments against existing traceback methods, both those currently in practice and those in the academic literature, this methodology demonstrates significant improvements in accuracy, efficiency, and speed.
 
While results from simulation serve as a first step towards validating the accuracy and applicability of the traceback approach, the necessary next step is to demonstrate accuracy when applied to real food distribution networks. Hanno Friedrich, Assistant Professor of Freight Transportation, has created a methodology for modeling commodity flows that generates the aggregate supply chain data necessary for traceback studies. This fall I will work under Professor Friedrich to combine our methods to create a holistic system for real-time source detection, and to evaluate the ability of this system to correctly localize the origin of recent outbreaks of foodborne disease in Germany. In this talk I will provide an overview of this collaborative project foodborne illness case studies we plan to carry out in the coming months.

 

 

 

Time

Start:

October 26th, 2016 @ 01:00 pm

End:

October 26th, 2016 @ 02:00 pm

Venue

Kühne Logistics University (KLU) at EE Lecture 2
Wissenschaftliche Hochschule für Logistik und Unternehmensführung
Grosser Grasbrook 17
20457 Hamburg, Germany  
Click here to get directions to the KLU.

Contact

Melanie Winkelmann

Tel.:

+49 40 328707-201

Fax:

+49 40 328707-209
 

 

CONTACT

Research Institute on Leadership and Operations in Humanitarian Aid
Großer Grasbrook 17 
20457 Hamburg, Germany
Tel.: +49 40 328707-241
Email: aloha@riloha.org

 

 

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